Number crunching in Beijing

China should release GDP figures for the first half of the year this week. First quarter growth was 11.1% year-on-year, and the second quarter may not be much different. Beijing  would like to see signs of slowing, and it would be surprising if the economy were not at or near a cyclical peak.  Exports are booming; they were up 27.6% in the first half compared with the same period year earlier, at 546.7 billion dollars. Imports have been growing far more slowly, at 18.2% in the six-month period, to 434.2 billion dollars.

The economy may well expand by around 11.0% in the second half of 2007, bringing first half growth in at around the same pace???. However, Beijing's attempts to discipline investment may prove to be having some effect. January-June growth might then come in one or two tenths of a percentage point lower, at around 10.8%. Although the economy does not appear to be overheating just yet, some moderation would make for less of a risk that it might.