Specter of defeat?

The US Congress this week will challenge the broad claims of executive authority, and the military-led 'war on terror' strategy, that President George Bush has pursued since the September 11, 2001 attacks.  Although the debate on the Iraq troop 'surge' will dominate headlines, the president's assertions of extraordinary wartime power may be the most vulnerable.  And foremost among Bush's opponents will be an unlikely figure, the ranking Republican member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania.

A regular rebel

While Specter was once a loyal party man, he has become a particular bete noire for Bush.  He has morphed from a loyalist to a regular rebel:

• As a moderate Republican with socially liberal views, and a long time supporter of abortion rights, his politics do not align perfectly with those of the administration.  The party has traditionally espoused a 'big tent' approach -- encompassing both North-eastern moderates ('Rockefeller' Republicans) and Bible-belt conservatives.  However, Deputy White House Chief of Staff Karl Rove's strategy of mobilising the party's 'base' exposed moderates like Specter to attack from the conservative Right.
• In 2004, this political trend led former Congressman Pat Toomey to challenge Specter's Senate re-election bid in the Pennsylvania Republican primary.  The national party, including the White House, realised that Toomey's Right-wing views were probably out-of-line with public sentiment in the state, and backed the incumbent -- who saw off his antagonist by a razor-thin 1.7 percentage points.  However, the Toomey episode left Specter weak, and dependant on White House political patronage.
• This led to an extraordinarily humiliating situation in November 2004, when Specter was in-line to assume the Judiciary Committee chairmanship after the Republican takeover of the Senate.  Conservative senators, backed by the White House, required him to sign -- and read aloud -- a public pledge that he would not reject 'pro-life' judicial nominees after he took the gavel.  Specter, a proud man with a famously volcanic temper, visibly seethed.

Weakened, Specter essentially followed the administration line.  Nevertheless, during the 2005-2007 Congress, he was more reluctant than many of his fellow party members to endorse the president’s claim to be able to detain foreign nationals indefinitely at Guantanamo Bay, without access to US civilian courts.  As chairman of the Judiciary Committee, Specter helped craft what he viewed as 'compromise' legislation, the 2006 Military Commissions Act, which codified the special trial system at Guantanamo.  (Among other provisions, it bars detainees from filing habeas corpus petitions in civilian federal courts).

Specter's 'revenge'

However, following the Democratic party's victory in the November 2006 congressional elections, Specter has enjoyed a political renaissance.  Centrist Democrat Bob Casey crushed the conservative Republican junior senator from Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum.  This signalled that the Right-wing wave was ebbing, and empowered moderates.  Since then, Specter has become a constant thorn in the side of the White House:

• He reversed his position on Guantanamo Military Commissions, and co-sponsored the Habeas Corpus Restoration Act with Democratic Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy.  The bill has been reported out of committee, and should reach the Senate floor this month.
• A former prosecutor, he has roundly condemned the firings of eight US attorneys by Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, and was one of only seven Republican senators to back a 'no-confidence' motion directed at the nation's top law enforcement official.  After one recent hearing, he declared that there could soon be a new attorney general.  Worse yet, from the administration's perspective, he has suggested that White House officials with knowledge of the case should comply with congressional subpoenas. 
• He has also strongly backed Senate subpoenas for information regarding the administration's warrant-less counter-terror wiretapping programme, and helped push authorisation through the Judiciary Committee with overwhelming bipartisan support.

Specter's increasing political strength, largely at Bush's expense, illustrates the limits of Rove's 'base' strategy.  While it continues to earn the president strong support among conservatives, it has comprehensively alienated moderates and independents.  For the senior senator from Pennsylvania, revenge has been sweet, indeed.