Somali reconciliation

Reconciliation will be slow to emerge, if it does at all, from the conference the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) plans to open on Sunday.  The conference has been delayed twice already, mainly due to serious insecurity in the capital, Mogadishu, more than six months after the TFG took control with Ethiopian backing.  Yet, international pressure has continued -- mainly from the United States and EU -- to hold the conference and to create political consensus.  Washington has also advocated the inclusion of 'moderate' members of the Council of Somali Islamic Courts administration, which controlled Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia the second half of 2006.

While  the TFG has found some support outside the capital and in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland in the north, it has yet to establish full control over the capital.  Attacks on government and Ethiopian positions are frequent, and indiscriminate security force responses have increased local resistance.  Divisions persist about participation in the conference within the various Hawiye sub-clans, which constitute the main opposition to the TFG.  Radical Islamists will also try to disrupt the proceedings, which could last for months.  Finally, a key focal point for resentment and insurgency is the continued presence of Ethiopian troops.