How long has Musharraf got?

General Pervez Musharraf's term as president of Pakistan is due to expire in November. Though unpopular and increasingly isolated, he has said that he wants to be re-elected by the incumbent national and provincial assemblies. This is highly contentious and raises constitutional questions – which is nothing new for the Musharraf administration, since it has several times overcome legal obstacles to cement its position since the 1999 coup that brought it to power.

Yet  the president is weakened and his continued tenure as both head of state and army chief is being challenged from several quarters:

• His decision last week to order troops to storm the Red Mosque in Islamabad and end the embarrassing stand-off with radical Islamists won him a temporary reprieve. Yet that is not the end of the matter. Radical elements in the troubled North West Frontier Province, many of them supporters of the Red Mosque, will be seeking revenge.
• His suspension of the chief justice in March triggered a political crisis that has undermined the scope for an alliance with the exiled former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The authorities' subsequent handling of anti-government protests soured his image, even within his own party and, for some, in Washington.
•  His contribution to the 'war on terror' has caused resentment at home, and has been criticised for its failure abroad. Taliban and al-Qaida influences have spread in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan and will use the violent suppression of the Red Mosque to boost their cause.
• Attempts to use troops to quell potential uprisings in the tribal areas will put military unity under strain. Musharraf owes his power to the men in the uniform. They could decide to take it away from him.
• He also faces the risk of assassination, as is clear from the shots fired at his plane from an Islamabad roof-top last week.

So how long will he survive as president? Only as long as his formidable enemies at home remain disunited and the United States feels that there is no one else it can turn to in Islamabad to help wage the 'war on terror'.