Tinderbox Islamabad

Islamabad is poised for further tension this week as the political and security crises that threaten President Musharraf Pervez's government threaten to come to a head.

In the past few days, the longstanding standoff between the government and the radical Red Mosque (Lal Masjid) in Islamabad erupted into violence when security forces stormed the complex. After weeks of unsuccessful negotiations, Musharraf decided to evict the Islamist students whose kidnapping of those deemed to have violated religious conduct, demands for the introduction of Sharia law and reported threats to conduct suicide bombings exposed the government to criticism that it could not control its own capital.

Musharraf is also facing new pressure over his suspension of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry in March. The Supreme Court will soon rule on the matter and, if the verdict goes against him, the president could find it difficult to retain the support of his principal backers -- the military and the United States.

Musharraf's presidential term expires in October, and he is hoping to be re-elected by the sitting legislature before national elections take place. Yet opposition parties and Washington are both pushing for national elections to precede any legislative vote on the presidency.

Meanwhile, in the wings, exiled former Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto are angling for a return to the political stage --on condition that Musharraf ends his dual role president and army chief. He continues to reject the idea.

These developments point to a further rise in the political temperature that could easily boil over into fresh violence and terrorist attacks.