Progress at Yongbyon

The international community is looking for progress on the shuttering of North Korea's nuclear facilities at Yongbyon this week. Expectations have been raised by the return to the country last week of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, for the first time since being thrown out in 2002.

They are reporting agreement with the regime in Pyongyang on measures for monitoring the eventual shutdown of the plant. Within days of their visit, China's Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi was in town shaking hands with North Korea's most senior leader, Kim Jong-il, who reportedly commented that the situation on the Korean peninsula was looking more relaxed. Indeed, South Korea is gearing up to send a first shipment of heavy fuel oil to its northern neighbour, in part fulfilment of its obligation under the February 13 six-party talks agreement. Delivery had been tied to progress at Yongbyon.

Kim's buoyant mood is well deserved. He has not had to do much to shore up his key relationships with China and South Korea. Pyongyang signed up to do a deal in February, but has not had to follow through on any of its key promises. Now it looks as though it might commit itself to closing Yongbyon, and it has Beijing and Seoul back onside as protection against any US or Japanese 'ill-will'. Once Pyongyang has secured a few goodies in return for some level of compliance, it may judge that it is time to stall once again...to encourage the others to give just that little bit more.