Profile: Cristina Kirchner

This week, the media will be eager to draw parallels between Argentine presidential hopeful Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and Eva Peron. Yet the presumed likeness between the First Lady -- who will officially announce her candidacy in October’s elections on July 19 -- and Evita is specious. Far from being a tame disciple of her husband, President Nestor Kirchner, Fernandez will be a combative and confrontational leader if, as expected, she comes to power this autumn.

Fernandez, aged 54, may share glamour, charisma and strong political instincts with former first lady Peron. But the similarities end there. 'Evita' came from a poor background and had little formal education. Politically, she chose to follow her husband, President Juan Peron. By contrast, Fernandez -- who prefers to be referred to as 'first citizen' -- is a lawyer with a lengthy political career, and is a key influence over, rather than a pupil of, her husband. 

Kirchner will leave his wife a strong legacy. Although Fernandez' approval ratings and voting intentions are lower than her husband's, she should enjoy a comfortable first-round victory on October 28.  Four new polls give her voting intentions of between 46.0-48.2%, with her nearest rivals, centre-left candidates Elisa Carrio and Roberto Lavagna, failing to reach 13.0% in any survey.  Most other opposition candidates are unlikely to exceed 5%.  This reflects generally solid economic performance under the Kirchner government -- strong growth, falling unemployment and poverty levels and political stability -- which contrasts with the still-fresh memories of the 2001-2002 crisis.  However, it also reflects the chronic disarray of the opposition, which has failed to capitalise on the government's mistakes to provide alternative options rather than merely criticism, or to unite behind a single candidate.

Personal controversy

However, Fernandez is a controversial figure.  Her presidency of the Senate constitutional affairs commission, which has taken the lead on a number of political issues of key interest to the president, has come under fire, as has her behind-the-scenes role. The fact that she has a private office within the presidential palace underscores her influence. Fernandez already has a say in most decisions taken by the government, and her clout is far greater than that of an ordinary lawmaker.

Fernandez already enjoys a high profile on the international stage. She makes many foreign visits alone, in particular participating in conferences on human rights, corruption and women in politics. This focus on foreign policy is likely to be a hallmark of her government, unlike that of her husband. 

‘K style’

The style and substance of a Fernandez government will not mark any real policy shifts. Kirchner's confrontational and autocratic style will almost certainly remain unchanged: Fernandez is famed for her combativeness, and she has described herself as the "founder" of this so-called "K style". According to Fernandez, this aggressive approach is a more effective means of defending Argentine interests than respect for protocol.

There are doubts over Fernandez's lack of executive experience, and over prospects for shifts in economic policy.  With slowing growth, a looming energy crisis and intractable inflation, GDP growth averaging 9% annually cannot be sustained, and policy shortcomings are becoming increasingly apparent.  Although there have not yet been any hints as to her policy preferences, or the identity of a possible economy minister, Fernandez seems unlikely to make significant changes in policy, which will gradually undermine her government over the 2007-11 term.