Success looms for Calderon

Life may get easier for Mexican President Felipe Calderon this week, in his struggle to enact fiscal reforms. He will continue negotiating with opposition parties in Congress on the issue -- and should have some success.

While Calderon's centre-right National Action Party (PAN) is the largest in both chambers, it does not have an overall majority.  The government is most likely to turn to the main opposition centre-left Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).  PRI legislators are likely to approve legislation, albeit with relatively minor changes.

The more interesting question is whether Calderon will be able to secure support from sections of the other centre-left opposition party, the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).  The PRD's defeated presidential candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, recently held a rally in the centre of Mexico City in which he stated that the party under no circumstances would negotiate with the government, especially on fiscal reform.  However, a number of PRD legislators subsequently said they were open to dialogue. This could be a serious blow to the credibility of Lopez Obrador -- who still claims to be 'legitimate president' after last year's close presidential race. 

Approval of fiscal reform, especially if it is not altered substantially, would also be a significant boost to Calderon, who continues to impress after a first year in office that exceeded expectations. He still needs to deliver results on his other key project -- tackling violent crime.  While he has been perceived as assertive and decisive on this issue -- sending the military to deal with drug gangs in trouble spots -- levels of violence remain extremely high.  Calderon will take the blame if the violence increasingly affects ordinary Mexicans, who up to now have been shielded from battles between drug gangs.