Deadlock over Kosovo

A potential crisis looms in East-West relations. This week or next should see a UN Security Council draft resolution on the future status of Kosovo. The proposal, which will recommend independence for Kosovo as the only viable option for stability in the region, will not be acceptable to Serbia or Russia. This means that Moscow may veto it.

A veto would frustrate the EU and the United States, who are both keen to ground the breakaway province's status on international law. Such an impasse in negotiations may be disastrous for Kosovo, which is seeking a speedy solution to ensure that pro-independence protests in Pristina do not spiral out of control.

UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari will suggest a plan that allows Kosovo to join the UN and have its own flag and national anthem. Kosovo will be prevented from merging with Albania, or having its Serb areas annexed to become part of Serbia. The Serb minority -- around 5% of the population -- will be promised places in local government and parliament, proportionate representation in the police and civil service, and a special status for the Serbian Orthodox Church.

The concessions will not satisfy Belgrade. It wants Kosovo be highly autonomous, but remain a part of Serbia.  Serbian officials have said they will countenance no negotiations where the outcome is predetermined, claiming that the imposition of Kosovo's independence would be a violation of Serbia's sovereignty and therefore contrary to international law.  But Serbian sovereignty is anathema to Pristina, which argues that the war crimes of the Slobodan Milosevic years have made continued union between Kosovo and Serbia impossible. 

Moscow is also dissatisfied with the proposal. Russian President Vladimir Putin will probably kill the resolution on Serbia's behalf. His reasons for doing so are murky:

• Some have suggested Moscow's support for Belgrade is rooted in Slavic and Orthodox commonalities or contingent on Russian investment in Serbia's energy, banking, metallurgy and infrastructure sectors.
• More likely it is simply another example of Moscow flexing its muscle on the world stage and embarrassing the West.

The EU is keen for further talks to demonstrate that every effort has been made to find compromise between Belgrade and Pristina, if only to show Russia that its objections have been heeded. Paris will call for more bilateral talks before the Security Council takes up the issue again, but Washington will not want to stall for much longer. President George Bush has already stressed that Kosovo's independence is the only acceptable solution, so he will feel that there is nothing left to negotiate.

Political impasse

This points towards political impasse between Russia and the West, at least until Bush and Putin meet in Kennebunkport, Maine, on July 2. The EU and the United States may end up taking up a trans-Atlantic position that recognises Kosovo's independence. This would not be the first time the West has bypassed the UN over the Balkans: it did the same in 1999 when NATO halted Serbia's ethnic cleansing campaign in Kosovo.

Meanwhile, Pristina is preparing for instability. Various groups, including Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) guerrilla war veterans, are already planning demonstrations in favour of immediate, full independence.  Delaying a decision on Kosovo's final status any longer may also destabilise the entire Western Balkans as trouble in Kosovo spills over to neighbouring countries with significant Albanian minorities, such as Macedonia.