Bulgaria/Romania: Judgement day

The two newest members of the European Union may get a rap on the knuckles next week. The European Commission is set to report on the monitoring of problem areas in Bulgaria and Romania on Wednesday.  Sanctions may be in store if the two countries are deemed to have showed few improvements in areas identified as problematic in the last assessments before accession. 

Bulgaria and Romania were set benchmarks for getting their houses in order: this included reforming their judiciaries, tackling corruption and organised crime, and tightening up agricultural support and food safety. This month's assessments will scrutinise the extent of judicial reform and organised crime. Health, agriculture and regional policy come under the microscope in the autumn.  The Commission can apply measures such as refusing to recognise the decisions of Bulgarian or Romanian courts, or withholding farm payments or structural funds.  Financial penalties may be more effective, but are technically difficult. 

Sofia and Bucharest are nervous as the deadline approaches, and have already received nudges and winks on the verdict from Brussels.  Bulgaria could get a worse appraisal than Romania, which appears to have done more in the fight against corruption.  Yet putting one above the other seems harsh -- elites in both countries have been equally slow to take action against their own; the Romanian political class has allowed itself the distraction of a full-scale row, with the prime minister sacking a reforming justice minister and trying to sack the president. 

Although a ticking-off from Brussels will have some influence on the politicians, its more salutary effect may be to instill some sense in them by subverting their credibility among the voters.