Stakes high in East Timor

Parliamentary elections take place in East Timor on June 30 that could have a decisive impact on state development, and even its survival. The ruling Fretilin party, led by former Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri, faces stiff competition from a new party created by rival and former president, Xanana Gusmao.

A heavy international military presence is likely to ease security concerns, although there have been sporadic acts of violence throughout the campaign. April's relatively peaceful presidential election, a victory for Jose Ramos-Horta, seemed to mark a new start after last year's deadly clashes that led to the deployment of hundreds of foreign troops. The highly regarded Nobel peace prize-winner was a less divisive figure than the Fretilin candidate, and he secured 69% of the vote.

Yet severe social, institutional and economic challenges lie ahead. Unemployment rates -- particularly among the young -- are high, while an underlying ethnic divide threatens to fuel further violence.

Given that last year's clashes were motivated by a desire to prevent Fretilin creating a one-party state, the prospect of a Fretilin victory in the elections raises the spectre of more violence. International troops are unlikely to withdraw soon.