Darfur talking shop

Foreign ministers from the United States, China, Russia and Japan meeting in Paris on Monday would do well not overestimate the impact of Khartoum's agreement to an enhanced peace-keeping mission in Darfur on the long-term stability prospects for the region.

President Omar Hassan al-Bashir's government dropped its objections this month to a 'hybrid' UN/African Union (AU) peace-keeping mission of more than 20,000 troops and police to supersede the existing AU mission. The latter is struggling to protect civilians with about 7,500 troops in an area the size of France. Yet the introduction of peacekeepers to improve the immediate humanitarian situation -- some 200,000 are estimated to have died and 2 million been displaced since 2003 -- remains months away. 

Khartoum's priority is to retain power. Its change of heart on the peacekeepers will provide the breathing room necessary to bolster its position in the face of increased pressure from the United States, Europe and even -- behind the scenes -- China.  Moreover, oil revenues and the support of regional Arab states, especially Egypt and Libya, contribute to Khartoum's overall strong position vis-à-vis the Darfur rebels. 

As for the meeting, the Sudanese will not even be there. Khartoum was quick to reject an invitation to attend from French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. It said that while the French efforts were appreciated, it was wary of creating a parallel initiative that would distract existing peace efforts.  The international community will focus on peacekeepers, which may be crucial for human security, but comes at the expense of the political process necessary for a significant improvement in Sudan's overall stability.