Race for Buenos Aires

The second round run-off election for mayor of Buenos Aires will be held on June 24.  The centre-right candidate, Mauricio Macri, won 45.6% of the vote in the first round on June 3, with President Nestor Kirchner's candidate, Daniel Filmus, second on 23.7%. Macri, whose PRO coalition will have 28 of the 60 legislative seats, won in every district and his second-round victory is virtually assured, although Kirchner is campaigning hard for Filmus and has warned voters that public transport in the city may become more expensive if a Macri victory produces a cutoff in federal subsidies. Ironically, although Macri's unexpectedly large first-round margin represents above all an 'anti-Kirchner' vote, his consolidation as leader of the centre-right favours the president, for whom he does not represent a serious electoral threat nationally. A second-round win also ensures that Macri will not decide on a late presidential bid.  With centre-left supporters of Mayor Jorge Telerman badly damaged by his elimination in the first round, no opposition presidential candidate looks likely to gain more than 10-15% of the vote in October. This, and Filmus's higher-than-expected vote, will bolster government confidence and may encourage the rapid confirmation of Senator Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's presidential candidacy.