California's 'foreign policy'?

A US legislature is this week debating a measure demanding the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq.  Yet that lawmaking body is not on Capitol Hill in Washington, but in Sacramento.  The California state Assembly is considering whether to put a referendum question on its February 5, 2008 presidential primary ballot calling for a troop pullout.

The California Assembly’s move is pure political theatre.  States have no constitutional role in US foreign affairs.  But with a population of 35 million and a 1.7 trillion dollar economy, California is often likened to a separate country within the United States.  Now it is mimicking one, by dabbling in ‘foreign policy’ on Iraq and other areas of global concern, such as climate change.  Indeed, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has signalled his intent to make the state’s weight felt on the national and international stage.

California’s political estrangement from Washington in recent years was predictable, given that the state’s Republican party self-destructed in the late-1990s, while the conservative movement reached its apogee elsewhere in the country.  Yet even in that context, the vehemence of opposition that President George Bush’s policies have aroused in the state is surprising.  Particularly contentious issues include the president’s stances against:

• climate change legislation;

• withdrawal from Iraq;

• increased stem cell research; and

• medicinal marijuana use.

An April Field Poll indicated that Bush's approval rating among California voters has dropped to its lowest level since he assumed office six years ago:

• Just 26% of state voters now approve of Bush's performance in office, the lowest approval rating given by Californians to any US president in the past 30 years and close to the record low assessment given to former President Richard Nixon in August 1974, shortly before he resigned from office.

• The public's disenchantment with Bush's stewardship of the war in Iraq is the chief contributor to his low job marks, with just 24% rating the president's handling of the war positively and 72% rating him negatively.

The root cause of this discontent is the powerful libertarian bent evident -- even among conservatives -- in the state that fostered the political career of former President Ronald Reagan.  Voters clearly value individualism, and both economic and social freedom.  (Former First Lady Nancy Reagan has led the campaign for increased federal stem cell research funding, following her husband’s death from Alzheimer’s disease).

The state’s leading Republican, Schwarzenegger, has exploited this public discontent to his political advantage.  In 2005, several of the governor’s reformist initiatives were defeated at the ballot box; by early 2006 his personal approval ratings touched new lows.  However, by embracing climate change in the form of a new law mandating 80% cuts in the state’s carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 -- and vocally challenging the Bush administration -- Schwarzenegger was able to restore his political standing and win a resounding re-election victory in November 2006.  As part of his process of political reinvention, the governor has embraced informal, cooperative climate agreements with several US states, Canadian provinces, and UK Prime Minister Tony Blair.

California’s ‘foreign policy’ ventures will not produce a constitutional showdown with Washington, beyond the current legal wrangling on the state’s ability to independently mandate its own auto mileage standards.  But the state’s libertarian revolt does represent a challenge for Republican candidates, as the 2008 presidential elections approach.