Iran to face G8 hostility

The G8 group of nations will issue a strong statement calling on Iran to suspend its nuclear programme at its summit in Heiligendamm this week. The statement will be tersely worded and studiously ignored.

The G8 may begin to discuss military intervention. Neither diplomacy nor economic sanctions have so far persuaded Tehran to comply with UN Security Council (UNSC) requirements. The five permanent UN Security Council members -- the United States, United Kingdom, China, France, Russia and Germany -- four of whom are G8 members, demanded a year ago that Tehran suspend enrichment in exchange for better political and economic relations. This year the West has negotiated through the EU-3 (France, Germany and the United Kingdom), applied pressure through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and sought sanctions through UNSC resolutions.

Iran denies that it is secretly developing atom bombs. However, G8 has good reasons to doubt this.

• Last April, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad announced that Iran could now enrich uranium on an 'industrial scale'.
• The IAEA affirmed two weeks ago that Iran had made substantial progress in its push to enrich uranium, saying that Tehran could build a nuclear weapon in three to eight years.
• Last week, Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani reiterated that he would not give in to demands that his country suspend uranium enrichment over fears it is developing nuclear weapons.

Military strike?

G8 foreign ministers have promised to support further 'appropriate measures' as agreed in UN Resolution 1747 if Iran continues to ignore the demands of the Security Council. This means a tightening of the ban on arms sales and stepping up the freeze on assets already in place. G8 is likely to ignore IAEA director-general Mohamed ElBaradei's recommendation to let Iran enrich a limited amount of uranium as a way of breaking the deadlock with the West.

The United States will agitate for further sanctions, such as using the administration's ties to the UAE government to freeze Iranian assets held in Dubai and increasing pressure on European companies and banks who assist Iran with their nuclear programme.

This may be the final round of sanctions before military options are elevated above diplomatic ones. A military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities may ignite the entire Middle East and making Israel a target for Iran and its allies in the region, like Hezbollah militants, Syria and Hamas. However, President George Bush appears determined to leave this problem to his post-2008 successor.