A pig's ear in China

300The number of pigs that official Chinese press agency Xinhua reported on May 10 to have died from Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), or blue ear disease, in southern China.

1,300 The number of pigs that Hong Kong media claim to have been infected.

1,000,000 The number of pigs that have died from blue ear disease, according to Reuters sources.

20,000,000 The number of pigs that have died from blue ear disease according to an unidentified industry executive quoted in the FT.com.

It is almost certain that the Chinese government, worried by the spectres of inflation and social unrest, is downplaying the prevalence of blue-ear disease. This is likely to exacerbate disquiet over China's lack of openness over the emergence of serious diseases.

• The country's government tarried over informing the World Health Organization of the SARS outbreak until February 2003, restricting media coverage in order to preserve public confidence.
• China has been accused by an eminent Japanese virologist of systematically deceiving the World Health Organisation over the number of deaths from avian influenza. China has reported 25 human cases of bird flu since 2003, and 15 deaths, but virologists consider the relative absence of human cases of bird flu in China unusual, given its widespread infection in birds.

This reticence may cause delays in efforts to control epidemics such as blue ear disease.

Economic and social concerns

The economic and social implications of blue ear disease for China are, in the short-term, huge. The price of live pigs surged 71.3% over the 12 months through April and will continue to rise as the disease spreads.

There will surely be discontent over inadequate compensation for pig farmers. Farmers say they have received 10-20 yuan ($1.30-$2.60) per pig in compensation, but that's a fraction of the 700-800 yuan they could get at market for a full-grown hog.

Premier Wen Jiabao on Monday asked local governments at all levels to ensure the supply of pork and maintain market order amid rising concerns over the soaring price of pork. The surge in pork prices will likely push year-on-year CPI inflation to above 4% very soon, says Goldman Sachs, which may prompt China's central bank to raise interest rates later this year.

Blue ear disease will spread more quickly over summer with the hotter weather. The Chinese government's lack of candidness will make controlling the epidemic -- and pork prices -- doubly difficult.