Libya: Deceptive change?

Issues of compensation and Libyan political face-saving still stand in the way of the release of five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor sentenced to death for intentionally infecting children in a Benghazi hospital despite UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's upbeat visit to Tripoli last week. This suggests that the decision of Libyan leader Muammar al-Qadhafi to renounce terrorism and weapons of mass destruction has had little impact on the workings of the political system established during his 38 years in power. Progress on economic reforms has also been erratic.

Qadhafi has entrusted this cause to Seif al-Islam, one of his sons, who seems to have won some support among the elite. But he must tread carefully. He has powerful siblings to contend with and operates within a world of shifting alliances. He cannot challenge his father's basic political model, even if he wanted to, and must accommodate those with vested interests in its survival. In this context, the fate of the Bulgarian nurses has become a bellwether of Libya's readiness to reform.