Decisive elections in Taiwan

Mayoral elections on Saturday December 9 in Taipei and Kaohsiung, the two biggest cities in Taiwan, will put Chen Shui-bian’s beleaguered presidency to the test, and show whether the opposition is on course to succeed him in 2008.

The stakes for both the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) are high, and broader questions of Taiwan’s troubled relationship with China hover in the background.

Chen is almost half-way through his second five-year term as president of a DPP administration that is committed to rejecting China’s reunification overtures, and would formalise Taiwan’s de facto independence if it could. But the DPP lacks a majority in parliament and Chen has spent the past year battling allegations that members of his family have engaged in corrupt practices. Last month, his wife, Wu Shu-jen, was indicted on corruption-related charges. The move subjected Chen’s prestige to a further blow, even though he managed to survive a third attempt by parliament to oust him when the opposition failed to muster the required two-thirds majority.

All this has invested the usually fiercely contested mayoral races with added potency. Polls suggest that the opposition will capture both cities. What looks like proving a difficult weekend for the DPP will cast a shadow over the remainder of Chen’s presidency:

• Will his party allow him to stay in office if he jeopardises its chances in 2008 against so formidable a contender as the KMT’s Ma Ying-jeou, the outgoing mayor of Taipei?
• Beijing will certainly be keen to see the back of Chen: it has spurned relations with his administration and courted the KMT, pending its expected return to power. But it will not be happy to see Vice President Annette Lu, a maverick and fierce supporter of independence for Taiwan, serve out the remainder of Chen’s term.

Uncertainty and volatility lie ahead, both in domestic politics and cross-strait relations.