Transnistrian theatrics

The incumbent ‘president’ of Moldova's unrecognised breakaway republic of Transnistria, Igor Smirnov, almost certainly will be re-elected for his fourth term on Sunday, December 10. His most formidable rival, opposition newspaper editor, Andrei Saforov, has been disqualified because of forged signatures on his nomination papers -- just as he was in the 2001 presidential election. Other candidates include businessman, Petr Tomayly, who has the backing of the Renewal party and Transnistria’s Sheriff company -- but he seems merely to be manoeuvring to replace Renewal’s faltering leader, parliamentary speaker Yevgeny Shevchuk.

In a recent poll, Smirnov enjoyed 42% support compared with 8% for Communist Nadia Bondarenko and 4% for Tomayly; 43% would show their dissatisfaction with the choice on offer by voting ‘against all’ -- not an option in this election.

Smirnov announced an unscheduled but most timely rise in the minimum pension, which took effect on December 1 and is enjoying wide coverage on local television. In some respects there is little to choose between the candidates who all support Transnistria’s continued independence from Moldova, though Smirnov’s evolution into president-for-life may make it more embarrassing for Moscow to continue supporting him.

Finding a solution to Transnistria’s illegal status looks as far away as ever. It will thus remain a centre for arms and people smuggling, a drain on the Moldovan and Ukrainian economies, and a destabilising factor for the region.