Georgia's cold winter

Georgians are contemplating a cold winter. Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli is holding talks on the possibility of buying gas from the Shah Deniz field. Production at the field, due to come on stream by the year-end, is expected to reach 5.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in 2007.

Azerbaijan could emerge as an important supplier of gas to Georgia, which is facing a perilous winter amid a dispute with Russia. Yet problems loom. Moscow’s recent decision to cut gas exports to Azerbaijan from 4.5 bcm to 1.5 will require Baku to use a greater share of the Shah Deniz output to supply its domestic market. At a later stage, when extraction at Shah Deniz increases, Baku will still prefer to sell into the lucrative European market.

Is Iranian gas an alternative? The United States would prefer Georgia’s pro-Western regime not to deal with Tehran, and will make its views known to Tbilisi. Yet Washington may have to turn a blind eye; Georgia has no other way of keeping out the cold.