Cuba: Life without Fidel

Cuba is facing up to life after Fidel Castro. The Cuban leader was the notable absentee from his own belated 80th birthday celebrations last week. The occasion was supposed to mark his return to public view, after he handed over power temporarily to his brother, Raul, because of emergency intestinal surgery in July. Instead, the signs are that the career of one of the world’s most extraordinary political leaders is over, and that Cubans, like the rest of the world, must get used to life without Fidel.

Managed transition

He was smart enough to begin the transition himself by handing over power to Raul, whose profile has been increasing. Raul will adopt an increasingly presidential public persona with a view to allowing the Cuban people to adjust to the absence of their revolutionary leader, and reduce the risk of serious instability in the immediate aftermath of Fidel’s death.

Post-Fidel outlook?

Yet the key question is the direction Cuba will take after Fidel’s death and here the signals are mixed:

• As defence minister, Raul is close to the military, and has had a reputation as a hardliner.
• Yet there have also been rumours that he favours greater economic opening.

In recent years, Fidel has insisted on ideological discipline from his inner circle, meaning that there has been little evidence of reformist trends within the Communist party. But in his absence, this may soon change.

International manoeuvring

The other major issue is how Cuba’s neighbours will respond, particularly the United States but also Venezuela, which has provided significant financial support in recent years in return for large numbers of Cuban doctors being sent to form a key part of President Hugo Chavez’s ‘Misiones’:

• United States

  The US administration will want to avoid an exodus of refugees heading for Florida, and so is likely to act with caution. The sidelining of Cuban exile figures in the Bush administration, such as Otto Reich, would appear to confirm this trend. But it may be difficult to control more radical sections of the Florida exile community, leading to the risk of incidents that could inflame tensions.

• Venezuela

  Closer US-Cuban ties -- overt or covert -- would undermine Chavez’s special relationship, perhaps fatally. Any withdrawal of Cubans from the ‘Misiones’ would be a blow to the Venezuelan president.

Irrespective of how long he manages to live, Fidel is no longer the key figure in Cuba. A new era has begun in which the military holds the key to power. Raul may be able to stay on top for some time thanks to his good relations with the armed forces, though examples of transition in other one-party states suggest that nominated successors do not last very long. In any event, it is the end of Cuba as we knew it: significant economic, and perhaps even political opening is on the cards in Havana.