Kim ponders six-way talks

Pyongyang is pondering a return to six-party talks on its nuclear programme, having yielded to pressure from China to do so following October’s nuclear test. But will it change anything? The United States will not lift the financial sanctions that prompted North Korea to quit the talks late last year, while Japan, under it new prime minister Shinzo Abe, is taking a tougher line towards Kim Jong-il’s regime. South Korea is still caught in a trap of its own making: it favours engagement with its neighbour but supports international condemnation of its provocations. Russia is happy to let the situation drift. And North Korea itself thinks that if it does decide to talk again, it will do so in a new capacity – as a nuclear power.

That leaves China, the main supplier of oil and food to its recalcitrant neighbour. Beijing has shown that it is willing, at least temporarily, to turn off the taps if Pyongyang steps too far out of line. But how far is too far? Chinese leaders are weary (and wary) of Kim Jong-il, but they are even more fearful of what might replace his state on their frontier. The case for keeping him power remains compelling, at least for the time being. This points to talks rather than solutions -- a situation that will please no one more than Pyongyang.