Can the neighbours help Iraq?

At the behest of the Arab League, Arab foreign ministers will meet on Tuesday December 5, along with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, to discuss Iraq. It is part of a growing diplomatic trend to explore what outside powers can do to improve deteriorating security in the country. The Iraq Study Group (report to be released December 6th - see our video briefing) is widely expected to advise President George Bush to engage with Iran and Syria -- apparently even after the assassination of Pierre Gemayel in Lebanon -- when it reports later this month.

The flurry of diplomatic activity is well underway. Syria and Iraq restored diplomatic relations last month and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani visited Tehran. Both Damascus and Tehran are seeking to upstage any US attempt to re-engage with them -- and to send a message to Bush that they are already engaged. If Washington wants to get involved, it will have to be on their terms.

Behind the diplomatic posturing lie some stark realities. The Arab League is most unlikely to improve on it dismal record on Iraq to date; and, in any event, there is little that outside powers can do to improve the situation. Firm leadership is now the only thing that will enable the Iraqi government to stem the downward spiral and achieve anything beyond its own survival. This means the emergence by consent and persuasion of someone who can transcend the sectarian divide -- not a strongman imposed in a coup, as some have suggested. The only leader who has looked capable of doing this so far is the former interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. But he is in the political wilderness at present -- precisely because he does not enjoy strong sectarian backing.