Return From The Wilderness

Risks, Opportunities and Limitations in Post-Deal Iran

After months of negotiation, Iran and world powers agreed a landmark deal on July 14 to end the dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme. The deal paves the way for Iran’s re-emergence from international isolation and its reintegration into the global economy.

Under its terms, Iran has accepted heavy restrictions on its nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. This could re-open one of the region’s largest economies to international trade and investment but also add some 0.8 million barrels per day of oil to an already glutted market in 2016.

The deal could also transform Iranian politics. President Hassan Rouhani and his allies in the centrist and reformist camps have won a strategic victory against hard-line conservatives that puts them in a strong position ahead of the 2016 parliamentary election.

On the regional stage, the deal improves security. It reduces the risk of direct military action by Israel and the United States against Iran and provides a new channel for diplomacy between Tehran and Washington on Iraq, Syria and other regional crises.

Join our Client Conference Call on July 29 at 16:00 BST to understand the implications of these changes for Iranian politics and economy, investment and regional geopolitics:

We will assess the risks, opportunities and limitations for:

  • domestic politics and political stability in Iran;
  • renewed foreign investment and trade;
  • the energy sector and global oil markets;
  • Iran’s relations with the United States; and
  • Israel, the Gulf states and the regional military balance.