Cheap oil

How long will it last and how deep will it bite?


Oil prices dipped below 30 dollars per barrel in January -- prices not seen in more than a decade -- and the outlook for the rest of 2016 remains bearish as the fundamentals reassert themselves: over-supply, high stocks and economic uncertainty, particularly about the pace of slowdown in China.

Oil companies are cutting jobs, shedding non-core assets and putting high-cost projects on hold, especially in the United States, where cheap oil is threatening the end of the 'shale gas revolution'.

Meanwhile, hydrocarbon exporters with fragile fiscal balances are devaluing their currencies and turning to multilateral lenders for assistance, elevating domestic political risk.

This context raises several critical questions:

  • Could the oil price stage a sustained rebound this year?
  • Will any country be in a position to replace China’s role in oil demand?
  • What impact will the return of Iranian oil have on already glutted world markets?
  • Will OPEC finally agree to production cuts?
  • How many US oil companies will default this year?
  • How does the cheap oil alter the prospects for renewables?
  • Which oil exporters face the most troubling adjustment?

Join us to discuss these issues among others with a panel of Oxford Analytica’s expert advisors on the energy sector.