Country risk

Political satellite image of southeast Asia peninsula, highlighting Vietnam

We provide country and sector analysis designed to highlight and evaluate risk. 

Using our unique monitoring capability, we detect and assess a range of political, economic and social risks. We then apply forecasting tools to help clients understand how these risks affect their strategies and operations.

Client team: Political risk

Issue: Willis Towers Watson and Oxford Analytica conducted structured interviews with executives at a cross-sector group of leading global firms with a strong track record in political risk management, to discover how leading companies are responding to recent tumultuous political events.

Engagement: One-hour structured interviews were conducted with twenty panellists. The majority were Forbes Global 500 companies. The firms represented a cross section of industries including food and beverages, oil and gas, mining, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and utilities. The companies are mainly headquartered in North America, Europe and Japan and have extensive global operations, including in “risky” countries.

Result: The survey found that investors are increasingly holding management accountable for losses experienced due to political risk exposure. Importantly, growing investor pressure to account for political risk exposure is likely to mean that companies will increasingly be compelled to benchmark such capabilities against their peers.

Client team: Geopolitical risk

Issue: How will political and economic developments in key African countries affect the client’s operations?

Engagement: Regular expert briefings and rapid-response analysis from our Advisory country risk team.

Result: The client enhanced its contingency planning mechanisms and is better prepared to pre-empt political and economic volatility.

Client team: Ministry of Defence, GCC country

Issue: Understanding the impact on the state and region of the most pressing developments in international security and the global economy

Engagement: Our country risk team monitors the security and economic environment in regular, written analysis, and hold a series of workshops on key developments, analysing issues of particular interest collaboratively with the client, in depth and in real-time.

Result: The government uses our analysis to inform its policy-making, negotiations with international partners and intra-governmental meetings.

Client team: Strategy and Business Development

Issue: Which countries offer automobile market potential with limited risks to manufacturing and distribution facilities?

Engagement: Forecast reports and country studies from our Advisory macro strategy and country risk teams

Result: The client targeted three countries as candidates for investment.

Client team: Geopolitical Risk

Issue: What impact could growing resource nationalism have on the client’s strategy and operations in key markets in Africa and South-east Asia?

Engagement: Macro-risk horizon scanning from our Advisory country risk team

Result: The client better anticipates and prepares for the type, probability and impact of political risks.

Client team: Asset managers

Issue: How could political, regulatory and security factors combine to shape sub-Saharan Africa’s agribusiness sector over the next five years?

Engagement: Region-wide and country-specific risk reports from the Advisory country risk team.

Result: The client prioritised four countries in which to invest.

Client team: Political Risk

Issue: How will economic development and political risks shape the business environment in Brazil?

Engagement: Horizon-scanning of political and economic risks and their commercial impact from Advisory's country risk team.

Result: The client enhanced its ability to anticipate the type, probability and impact of political and economic volatility on its revenues and operations in Brazil.

Client team: Geopolitical Risk

Issue: How could rising political uncertainty in South-east Asia affect the client’s operations in the region?

Engagement: Rapid-response analysis and expert briefings on key events and trends in the main countries of operation from our Advisory country risk team.

Result: The client is better able to anticipate and manage political volatility affecting its operations.