Korn Ferry Global Talent Crunch

A major crisis is coming, a seismic shock that will impact organisations and economies around the world.

Global labor shortages of 85.2 million skilled workers are projected by 2030, resulting in lost output of $8.5 trillion – the combined GDP of Germany and Japan.

The Global Talent Crunch study, based on economic modeling designed by Korn Ferry, Man Bites Dog and Oxford Analytica and executed by Oxford Analytica, reveals that - unless workers become dramatically more productive - global talent shortages will constrain growth for organisations and economies in the future of work.

Korn Ferry’s latest study on the future of work, The Talent Crunch, reveals the financial impact of skilled talent shortages at three different time horizons – 2020, 2025 and 2030 – across 20 major developed and developing economies.

The talent shortage crisis could undermine market dominance within sectors:

  • Labour shortages in financial and business services are the most severe with a potential deficit of 10.7 million workers globally by 2030, which could cause the sector to lose out on annual output of $1.3 trillion.
  • Technological advancement across all sectors of the economy could be hindered by an acute global labour shortage of 4.3 million TMT workers by 2030.
  • Manufacturing is facing a talent deficit crisis of 7.9 million workers globally by 2030, despite being the only sector with a surplus of highly skilled workers in 2020.

The study also reveals a sizeable mismatch between supply of available workers and business demand at country level:

  • Developed markets will be hardest hit by imminent talent shortages.
  • Australia, France, Germany, Japan and the U.S. face the largest crunch, with a combined opportunity cost of $1.9 trillion in annual output by 2020.
  • The U.S. faces a critical shortage of skilled workers that is set to worsen. It could leave $1.7 trillion of annual output on the table by 2030 - equivalent to 6 percent of the country’s economy.
  • India is the only economy in the study set to maintain a talent surplus in 2025 and 2030.

It scrutinizes data and business intelligence to uncover the extent of the talent shortfall in 20 major economies. The 20 markets covered are: the Americas (Brazil, Mexico, the U.S.), EMEA (France, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, U.A.E., U.K.) and Asia Pacific (Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand).