Public sector

The United Nations headquarters building in New York

Clients in the public sector range from governmental bodies of all sizes - foreign & defence ministries, Offices of the President or Prime Minister, central banks and intelligence agencies - to global and regional institutions.

Engagements range from immediate assessments of geopolitical and macroeconomic developments through geopolitical monitoring to policy analysis, long-term scenarios and economic development strategies.

Client team: Caerus Capital

Issue: Oxford Analytica produced the first phase of a study that assesses the current role played by the private sector in African education, with the aim of understanding the potential for leveraging its resources to improve access to quality and relevant education for all.

Engagement: Guided by a panel of experts on education in SSA, the engagement team sought to identify opportunities available to investors in education in SSA and set out actions that policy makers can take to improve access to quality education. The team conducted a review of literature on the current and future issues facing SSA’s education systems and produced a mapping of current private education provision in SSA. In view of the sector’s growth, the team developed an index of market potential for private education and analysis of the trends shaping investment in the region’s education systems. We also provided an assessment of the risks associated with the obstacles to the private sector’s increased contribution to SSA’s education systems.

Result: The Phase I report served to support the work of the UN Commission on Financing Global Education. The final report, which includes case studies conducted in six countries by Parthenon EY, was released at the World Economic Forum Africa Summit on 4 May 2017. It highlights not only the existing role of non-state actors as education providers but also the opportunity to further integrate the private sector into Africa’s expanding education systems.

Client team: Country desks, research and library services

Issue: A foreign ministry had recurring objectives of monitoring multiple bilateral relationships, preparing staff for new postings to those countries and benchmarking internally produced analysis.

Engagement: Daily Brief client for 10+ years: tailored content collections from analysis archive both to create background briefings ahead of new postings and to compare to in-house analysis; additional use of customised email alerting for high-priority notification of relevant critical events.

Result: Our client fulfills its external geopolitical monitoring needs without disproportionate cost in staff time.

Client team: Office of the Head of State in a resource-rich developing economy

Issue: The government wished to change direction in economic policy in light of the sustained low oil price environment.

Engagement: Our policy analysis team advised on short-, medium- and long-term policies the government should consider, in a range of policy papers, econometric analysis and briefings.

Result: The government uses our analysis to inform its policy-making, negotiations with international partners and intra-governmental meetings.

Client team: Ministry of Defence, GCC country

Issue: Understanding the impact on the state and region of the most pressing developments in international security and the global economy

Engagement: Our country risk team monitors the security and economic environment in regular, written analysis, and hold a series of workshops on key developments, analysing issues of particular interest collaboratively with the client, in depth and in real-time.

Result: The government uses our analysis to inform its policy-making, negotiations with international partners and intra-governmental meetings.

Client team: Policy Planning at a major national intelligence agency

Issue: The agency wanted to consider long-term threats from terrorist groups and policy counter-measures which governments might employ.

Engagement: Expert briefings from Advisory's policy analysis team examining possible terrorist threats and countermeasures to 2030. These drew on our extensive contributor network to analyse sources of threat ranging from the Middle East to cyberspace, in studies, one-to-ones and medium-scale events

Result: Our work facilitated the national intelligence community's long-term policy planning on terrorism.

Client team: Senior diplomats at the League of Arab States

Issue: The League of Arab States wanted to enhance its capacity to more accurately predict future crises in the Middle East and develop effective responses to them.

Engagement: Scenario-based analytical training from our Advisory practice, delivered in person in Cairo, gave League staff theoretical and practical tools for the practice of analysis, including avoiding bias and constructing scenarios.

Result: The client enhanced its predictive accuracy and crisis-response strategies.

Client team: Asia team at a European foreign ministry

Issue: What medium term geopolitical and macroeconomic effects will China's leadership transition have on the Asia-Pacific region?

Engagement: Our Principal, Graham Hutchings (a China expert), gave an expert briefing to diplomats and analysts.

Result: The client updated its foreign and trade policy planning concerning Asia.

Client team: Country Risk team at an export credit agency

Issue: How to get internal traction with time-constrained senior management

Engagement: The client subscribed to the Global Risk Monitor for its compelling visualisation.

Result: The country risk team keep management aware of strategic risks.