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When it comes to accurately assessing political trends in developing economies, Oxford Analytica (OA) is a global leader. Our recent South Korean coverage is a case in point:
In May 2006, OA analysts predicted that the Uri party of President Roh Moo-hyun might face dissolution:
Uri will now face an uphill struggle to retain the presidency, and even to survive as a party. President Roh Moo-hyun will find himself further weakened for what remains of his term. OACES, May 31, 2006, 33
Following Uri’s defeat in the local and municipal elections, this analytical judgement became a certainty:
The resignation from the party’s leadership committee yesterday of two other members is expected to intensify divisions within Uri as rival factions compete for representation on a new five-member body. However, Uri is unlikely to last the year in its present form, as internal rifts can be expected to intensify and its links with Roh weaken. OACES, June 5, 2006, 35
As predicted, over the succeeding months Uri’s unity fractured and Roh’s capacity to hold the party together weakened:
Opposition parties won yesterday’s four parliamentary by-elections…although only four seats were contested, yesterday’s by-elections reinforce the impression that Uri is in serious decline… OACES, July 27, 2006, 35
Relations between President Roh Moo-hyun and his ruling Uri party have deteriorated even further since the end-May local elections, where they were badly defeated. In particular, there have been disagreements over appointments and policy… OACES, August 21, 2006. 31
President Roh Moo-hyun yesterday criticised calls from within the ruling Uri party for the formation of a new party to contest next year’s presidential election…Uri will probably split, with political forces realigning thereafter in order to contest presidential and parliamentary elections in 2007-08. OACES, December 5, 2006, 32
Until the party finally split:
Twenty-three legislators left the ruling Uri party today. The opposition Grand National Party (GNP) is now the largest in parliament, with 127 members to Uri’s 110. With Uri’s electoral chances continuing to fade, more defections are to be expected. The [opposition] GNP is already well ahead of Uri at the polls, and its chances of securing the presidency in December look increasingly good. OACES, February 6, 2007, 33
When navigating unfamiliar political shoals abroad, OA’s analysis is always a reliable guide. We spot trends before they develop, so that your organisation is prepared.
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