The US Presidential Primaries: Sorting the Signal from the Noise
Wednesday 30th January, 2008
16:00 GMT / 11:00 EST
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The January presidential primaries have not generated clear favourites for the major party nominations -- indeed they rarely do. However, they usually serve as key gauges of momentum, fundraising viability and ability ‘on the stump’.
This call will examine the trends that have emerged over the course of the campaign, and the impact they will have on Super Tuesday and November 6 itself, including questions such as:
- What qualities do US voters look for when selecting a president?
- Turnout has been high for both parties, but participation in the Democratic party’s primaries and caucuses has been running at record levels. Will the party be able to maintain this advantage in November?
- Senator Barack Obama attracted large numbers of young, first-time voters to the process in Iowa and New Hampshire. Will this fickle demographic continue to back him? If Senator Hillary Clinton eventually becomes the Democrats’ nominee, will young voters turn out for her in November?
- President George Bush created a winning national coalition of social conservatives, business-oriented voters, and national-security conservatives. Can any of the current Republican candidates restore this coalition, or do Republicans need to broaden their appeal beyond these blocs?
- How significant will Independents be in the remaining party primaries, and in the November election?
- Which areas of US policy will change regardless of the outcome and which will depend on the identity of the winner?
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