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Political tension in Pakistan is high, and rising, amid a crisis engulfing a weakened President Pervez Musharraf. Elections are expected later this year that will test the strength of the state. Since 2001, Pakistan has been central to US efforts to counter terrorism, with Washington identifying Musharraf as key to ensuring the cooperation of Pakistani military and intelligence communities, and the smothering of radical Islamist forces.
However, his credibility, both domestic and foreign, has been undermined by some questionable decisions. His strategy of military withdrawal from the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan in favour of peace deals with local leaders has prompted an expansion of Taliban and al-Qaida activity in the region.
Moreover, his bitter personal relations with his Afghan counterpart, Hamid Karzai, are impeding cooperation between Kabul and Islamabad, which is key to making progress against the Taliban. Since 2006, there has been an upsurge in militant activity (including the use of suicide bombings) in Afghanistan. The poor security situation (and the spread of opium production) have helped undermine the Karzai administration and fuelled frustration towards him and his international backers. Osama bin Laden and his second in command Ayman al-Zawahri seem to have taken advantage of these problems to build an operations hub in North Waziristan, representing a partial reconstruction of the destroyed infrastructure of ‘core al-Qaida’.
This call will address issues such as:
