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21st September, 2007
Dr. David R. Young,
Managing Director,
Oxford Analytica
To end these couple of days together, I want to take a few minutes to look at the sweep of history and relate it to where you and I are today.
As many of you know I spend a lot of time travelling back and forth to the United States. Reflecting on where I think America is today the best word I’ve been able to come up with is “dispirited”.
And the more I thought about it the more I felt that “dispirited” could also apply to Europe – and maybe even to the West in general. So why are we so “dispirited”?
I would like to make the case that it is largely a matter of “confidence” -- a loss of confidence, of self-confidence. Why a loss of self-confidence?
My view is that the cause lies in the fact that either we don’t know or we don’t believe any more in what made the West the West.
Have you ever asked yourself why is Europe not called “Western Asia,” as any map would suggest? The answer is- because it has its own distinct story in the sweep of history. If you want a big word, the “meta-narrative” of Europe is being lost. My fear is that we have forgotten our own story – and all its dimensions.
As with power there are at least three broad dimensions to history: Firstly, the hard factual dimension of names, dates, battles etc. Secondly, the soft intuitive dimension of character, motive, personality etc. And thirdly, the intangible dimension that is neither hard nor soft. Call it what you will. I call it the spiritual dimension. And it is this third dimension of the story of Western history that we have lost, or at best have failed to hold on to or appreciate.
We in the West have forgotten what may be called the “habits of the heart,” the human and spiritual values that are at the core of the story of Western civilization.
This is not a matter of political correctness or incorrectness. It is not a matter of putting down anyone or any other culture or civilization.
It is merely a matter of recognizing that while we are all bound together and have a common heritage as fellow human beings in every corner of the earth, there are also deep differences.
We must not be afraid of these differences. They must be articulated and understood. And we must learn to live with each other and with our deepest differences.
Many of our differences come from our cultures, our civilizations – as they rise and fall – and rise again. In the midst of this we must strive to understand “our times” and how the best and worst of it relates to past cultures and civilizations.
Within this framework, the West must rediscover a sense of its own history and an appreciation of the best of its own identity. It must drive a stake in the ground and be willing to say here’s what we believe made Western Civilization!
We all know the world is far from perfect – throughout history the story of human nature “red in tooth and claw” has prevailed more often than not.
Yet, “our times” are where we are in history – and I believe confidence and hope in the good, the true, the beautiful can make a difference.
But today this issue of confidence is obscured for two reasons:
Firstly, material success has blinded us to the dire realities of millions of our fellow human beings. Yes, we have the ability to make money. Market economies are in the ascendance. Indeed, materialism and consumerism are on such a high that they have come to overshadow belief in democracy.
This incidentally was the starting point of Michael Oreskes’ talk at Thursday’s lunch. Two quotes suffice:
“Capitalism has outgrown democracy.”
“Capitalism is killing democracy.”
It is as though the West were trying to prove that “man can live by bread alone”.
Why? Because we don’t know or don’t seem to want to know or appreciate “our times” in light of history; our own long journeys to the freedoms of expression, of worship, etc, to the rule of law, to human rights, to democracy - flawed as it is.
Secondly, the reason why this loss of confidence is obscured is the unrelenting mental overload and fatigue of the information revolution.
In sum, my point is that material success and information overload together make it very difficult to understand where we are – to understand “our times.”
Three Quotes to pull my case together:
Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?”
-TS Eliot (1934)
-30 Rockefeller Center
-Psalm 90:12
The common thread here is obviously the pursuit of wisdom. Let me leave that point on the table for now, and ask with you,
“So what’s this all got to do with me?”
The first half of my answer is that you did in fact take time out the last couple of days to do something different. I commend you all for making the effort to be with us. Taking a couple of days out has an opportunity cost - yes - but you did it.
I wouldn’t presume we’ve imparted wisdom – but hopefully we have at least pointed you in the right direction. We’ve made an effort to draw on the scholars calling to pursue truth based on an accurate assessment of human nature. And you’ve made the effort to be here, to listen, to engage, to dispute.
Knowledge and wisdom do not drop out of the sky! Work is required. We only learn by “applying our hearts” – as the Psalmist said.
The second half of my answer is that you are someone with authority and responsibility. You are a decision maker. You hold the welfare of others in your hands. Some of you more than others. But we all carry some authority and responsibility.
And obviously when it is carrying the responsibility for a nation that burden is enormous.
I doubt if anyone in this room has carried as heavy a burden of leadership as has the Prime Minister. I certainly have not, but during my 4 years in the White House I saw up close just how crushing that weight can be.
That is why we are admonished to “pray for those in authority”, for when authority is coupled with such responsibility the personal burden of leadership is overwhelming.
This is why we built Oxford Analytica: to serve those in authority carrying such responsibility. To help you make better decisions; to better understand “our times”- to be a little wiser.
So now to bring together my opening views on the loss of confidence in the West with where you and I are today.
I believe confidence is cumulative. It builds on itself. It can be contagious. Hopefully these last few days give you some grounds for confidence in your own corner of the world and if so, then I hope you leave feeling it has all been worthwhile.
Last year, I cited Arnold Toynbee’s thesis that if a civilization does not rise to a challenge it declines. And the evidence of that seems to be more true with each year that passes.
Today, the challenge to the West is to its own self-confidence. There is, therefore, an opportunity for Western leadership to call for a renewal, a revival, a restoration of its self-confidence.
And, finally on a personal note, may I close by saying, Mr. Prime Minister, you bore a huge burden of leadership over the last 10 years – and I would encourage you to build on, draw on that experience to call The West to recognize its heritage, to take encouragement from the whole story of the West – not just the material success story but the meta-narrative that includes the spiritual dimension of its history.
Thank you, God Bless, and Goodnight.
Dr. David R. Young is Managing Director of Oxford Analytica.
