Our track record

3 arrows near the centre of an archery target

Founded in 1975, we have an unrivalled track record in prediction, and a focus on building long-term relationships with our clients.

We have consistently ranked as one of the world’s leading analysis and advisory firms.

Analytical track record

Some recent examples of our capacity to deliver insight and foresight on key macro issues

What happened: In January 2016, UN and EU sanctions against Iran were lifted but most US sanctions remained in place.

When we said it: November 07, 2014 - Daily Brief

What we said: In the event of a successful resolution to Iranian nuclear negotiations, the United States is unlikely to offer major sanctions relief.

Client impact
  • Corporates: European and East Asian companies with existing trade links with Iran prepared to take first mover advantage for investment opportunities particularly in the automotive, tourism and IT sectors.
  • Governments/NGOs: European trade development officials started working on supporting companies to take advantage of likely absence of direct US competitors and to press for removal of barriers to foreign investment such as the opacity of the legal system and regulatory and bureaucratic environments.
  • Investors: Fund manager reassessed prospects for Tehran Stock Exchange within partial sanctions regime; investment bank assessed underwriting opportunities in bond issuance to reduce burden of government debt on local banks and improve liquidity in sector in possible absence of Wall Street firms.

What happened: In November 2015, Xi announced an overhaul of the People’s Liberation Army to better equip it to project force beyond the country’s borders, including a joint military command, consolidation of China’s seven military regions to as few as four and a reduction of 300,000 in troop numbers.

When we said it: October 22, 2014 - Daily Brief

What we said: President Xi Jinping has said that China needs a new military strategy -- something that could portend a major shakeup… perhaps including cuts in its size and a more centralised command structure.

Client impact
  • Corporates: Defence contractors reassessed sales opportunities in countries likely to be most affected by China’s greater ability to project force internationally.
  • Governments/NGOs: Policymakers adjusted diplomatic and military positions to accommodate likelihood of greater tensions in hot spots as a result of Beijing being able to deploy a modernised force that was putting more emphasis on naval, space and cyber forces, and to accommodate greater Chinese participation in humanitarian and other multilateral operations.
  • Investors: Investors rebalanced their regional portfolio exposure to take account of Beijing’s growing capacity to be assertive in contested areas such as the South China Sea, and the potential long-term growth of China’s defence contractors as a supplier to world markets.

What happened: On January 14, 2016, Islamic State group (ISG) claimed responsibility for attack near a shopping mall, luxury hotels and foreign embassies in central Jakarta in which at least eight people were killed and 23 others injured. It was the first major attack on the Indonesian capital since 2009.

When we said it: October 30, 2015 - Daily Brief

What we said: Indonesia’s tightening of counterterrorism efforts is insufficient to prevent local radicalisation and potential terrorist attacks.

Client impact
  • Corporates: Foreign-owned businesses pre-emptively tightened their security measures for premises and staff and developed or reviewed contingency plans for business disruption in the event of such an attack.
  • Governments/NGOs: Policymakers, especially in the region, pursued counter-terrorism co-operation and capacity development and intelligence sharing with greater urgency.
  • Investors: Portfolio and direct investors re-rated their terrorism and security risks exposure in Indonesia.

What happened: On March 8, 2016, state-owned Coal India, which accounts for four-fifths of domestic coal production, received environmental clearances for 22 new mining projects to help meet an annual production target of 1 billion tonnes by 2020, up from 550 million tonnes in the current fiscal year

When we said it: March 31, 2015 - Daily Brief

What we said: India’s purported focus on renewables will have little impact on its economic strategy and heavy coal dependency.

Client impact
  • Corporates: Prospective suppliers of rival energy sources used a contrarian reading to reality check the scale of funding and technology opportunities for renewables and other non-coal energy sources.
  • Governments/NGOs: Entered the Paris COP21 climate talks with a better prepared negotiating hand, knowing the likelihood that Delhi would reject legally binding emission targets and defend its coal-dependent energy policy.
  • Investors: Portfolio investors factored into their clean-energy investment exposure in India that Delhi’s climate goals were conflicting and unrealistic.

What happened: On January 17, 2016, Serbia’s Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic announced early elections.

When we said it: August 20, 2015 - Daily Brief

What we said: Serbia will follow Croatia in holding early elections

Client impact
  • Corporates: Foreign direct investors put a timeline to long-term opportunities for establishing operations in the country as a supply base for the EU, Vucic having previously said that a re-elected government would ready Serbia for EU membership by 2020.
  • Governments/NGOs: European policymakers read this as a step by Serbia to further ready itself politically for EU membership and thus recalibrate its long-standing relationship to Russia.
  • Investors: Asset manager had forward looking talking point to reach out to own clients and potential clients on the extent to which EU membership would change Serbia’s Eurobond issuance and how it might boost the country's underdeveloped bond and equity markets.

Client track record

Some recent examples of bespoke projects delivering great results for clients

Client team: Aviation Security

Issue: A Middle Eastern airline needs to understand the current and emerging security risks threatening its operations across 22 priority countries.

Engagement: Real-time assessment of critical aviation security risks from our corporate security team's risk assessment information system

Result: The client responds quickly and effectively to shifting dynamics in the security environment. Our service strengthens internal processes for reviewing suspended routes and new markets from a threat management perspective.

Client team: Public Policy

Issue: Microsoft wanted to engage with governments and policymakers on the long-term challenges for cyber security, and the real-world effects of policy decisions.

Engagement: Our Advisory thought leadership team wrote a study on how governments can maximise internet benefits by matching cyber security priorities to user needs. We developed a hierarchy of needs for internet users, ranging from access through resilience to connectivity to trust, considering the role of cyber security at each level. In our report, we applied this framework to plausible real world scenarios and case studies. With Microsoft, we then facilitated a conversation between the private and public sectors on how governments can take advantage of the internet-enabled economy while improving risk management for cyber security users.

Result: Microsoft has gone on to make cyber security in 2025 one of the core themes of their public policy outreach.

Client team: Financial risk

Issue: What economic scenarios over the next five years could adversely affect the client's balance sheet exposure?

Engagement: Plausible medium-term, high-stress economic scenarios from our Advisory macro strategy team

Result: The client adjusted its risk positioning and successfully underwent UK and European stress-testing reviews.

Client team: CSR team at an engineering and project management firm

Issue: How will climate change, labour and CSR policies affect the client's ability to produce successful infrastructure, construction and engineering proposals?

Engagement: Online monitor of sustainability initiatives in 18 countries, delivered by our CSR and policy analysis teams, highlighting affected customers and competitors and outlining key opportunities.

Result: The client uses our research to inform proposal writing and anticipate legislative developments around the world.

Client team: Strategy and Business Development

Issue: Which countries offer automobile market potential with limited risks to manufacturing and distribution facilities?

Engagement: Forecast reports and country studies from our Advisory macro strategy and country risk teams

Result: The client targeted three countries as candidates for investment.

Client team: Strategy

Issue: What market opportunities and risks could arise from the acquisition of a wealth management company?

Engagement: Econometric analysis and scenario planning across 50 countries from the Advisory macro strategy team

Result: The client acquired the target for 15.5 billion dollars.

Client team: Sustainability

Issue: What long-term trends will affect the supply of natural resources required for future energy production?

Engagement: Our macro strategy and CSR teams carried out a study forecasting demand and supply across the spectrum of natural resources using our Advisory practice's macro forecasting methodology.

Result: The client developed strategies to anticipate future water scarcity and other resource constraints.