Financial Crisis Briefing for Oxford Alumni

Oxford, Wednesday September 24, 2008

On September 20th, Oxford Analytica hosted a briefing on the global impact of the current financial crisis for over a 100 Oxford Alumni at the Oxford University Alumni event: "Meeting Minds- Global Oxford."

Items discussed included:

Business/International

We discussed US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's role in averting the collapse of the world financial system, as the president himself has less to say

And how parties in Congress have to accept, as given, redistributive measures taken in hours and days by cabinet officials
How the concrete terms of a Federal bailout may disappoint some bankers when it emerges
And how long it will take for the shape of a new financial system to become clear, perhaps on a different growth path and with attitudes to capitalism and regulation altered

North America

How the US response to the crisis has massively increased the Federal government’s involvement in the financial system

How the US crisis response is different to that in emerging economies, for being unrestrained by the IMF
How a new president will be constrained by tax and spending commitments made this week, on top of existing drains

And how the crisis makes Barack Obama more likely to be that president

Also what economic team he has advising him

Europe

We discussed how the European economy hasn’t decoupled from that of the US

Why Spain and UK are vulnerable in particular, due to their property bubbles

The problems of co-ordinating dozens of central banks inside and outside of the euro-area

And how understandings of capitalism differ across European countries, even between fellow conservatives Merkel and Cameron

Russia/CIS

We discussed the Pentagon and State Department’s view of Russia

The debate in Russia over international engagement and liberal economics

And whether President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin see eye-to-eye on those issues

Asia-Pacific

We discussed why a backlash against liberal economics is unlikely in India, due to an absence of that many economic liberals

How India’s unreformed financial system has insulated it a little from the crisis
And how it can gain from outsourcing and cheaper oil during a downturn, so long as the crisis doesn’t grow too severe
How some of India’s private corporate champions are vulnerable, having raised capital on the world markets

What the Chinese regime will do with its dollar reserves now

And how the Chinese bureaucracy is too slow-moving to take advantage of US assets going cheap

Latin America

We discussed how different Latin American governments will try to insulate themselves from the US financial problems

And whether Mexico, for example, can manage that
How they understand problems in the United States through the lens of their own crises and see the same political responses to the bailout

Middle East

We discussed how the world economy affects Middle Eastern economies

How much of a cushion high oil prices will be

How the Turkish government might try and make up in diplomatic activism for economic weakness
Whether Tzipi Livni can form a coalition in Israel
What happens when Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is supposed to hand executive power to Hamas in January

And whether a change of government in Washington will see diplomatic progress on the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme and place in the world.