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From the Global Daily Brief, as emailed 27th April, 2005
The referendum on the EU draft constitutional treaty appears to be headed for failure, which will cause significant damage to Chirac and the Raffarin government, the discordant Socialist opposition, and France's leadership position in Europe.
» See today's FRANCE: 'No' result threatens political class.
Boeing's recent sizeable 787 Dreamliner orders from Air India and Air Canada, and expectations of a similar deal with Northwest, will come as devastating news to Airbus, raising questions about the future of the A350 -- an aircraft destined to compete with the 787 -- as Air Canada and particularly Northwest were important Airbus clients.
» See INTERNATIONAL: Will Airbus disturb the Dreamliner? - October 25, 2004.
The outlook for new hydrocarbons investment and development is bright, with international interest in tapping Libya's large oil and gas reserves set to remain strong, and exports from Libya to Europe, North America and Asia likely to grow.
The suggestion that China may try to slow the entry of foreign banks and direct where they should set up after 2006 has probably been timed to raise awareness in Brussels -- and the United States -- of the wider stakes involved in protectionism. However, any attempt to introduce new rules could raise fresh concerns about the fragility of the domestic banking system, encouraging customers to switch to the 'safer haven' of foreign banks after 2006.
» See CHINA: Pressures militate against slowdown - April 11, 2005.
New identity verification and authentication technologies will limit the risk of identity theft, although the roll out and networking of these devices will take time.
» See today's UNITED STATES: Battle underway to curb identity theft.
Since Bush made the issue a key goal of his second term, neither public nor congressional opinion has shifted significantly in his favour. Democratic legislators remain strongly opposed to his proposal to create private investment accounts, while a key concern for Republican legislators is the potential political fallout, especially in the 2006 congressional elections.
» See UNITED STATES: Bush legacy at stake on social security - February 2, 2005.
Gbagbo's announcement should add momentum to the disarmament campaign started last week by rebel and government forces, as well as shifting the onus for continued progress to the New Forces.
» See IVORY COAST: Key issues unresolved in peace deal - April 11, 2005.
While ruling CCM is not seriously challenged at the national level in October's presidential poll, the opposition CUF is likely to win on Zanzibar if the elections there are free and fair, raising future questions about the stability of the union.
» See today's TANZANIA: CCM successor to face challenge of Zanzibar.
Illicit drug-trafficking, as well as trade in counterfeit cigarettes and pharmaceuticals, is likely to continue -- and may well escalate -- in the medium term, given the regime's rising foreign currency needs.
» See today's US/NORTH KOREA: Drug, counterfeit trade persists.