2012: Year of Turbulence and Transition
A dramatic re-ordering of global affairs is underway, increasing the risks facing businesses and governments around the world in 2012. We are in an era of Long Transition, marked by complexity, particularity, and volatility as global economic and political power dissolves and re-forms around new axes nodes and countries.
Prospects 2012 posits:
- A modest expansion in global GDP driven almost solely by the developing world
- Relative stability in global commodity prices
- A 'political' solution will be found for the euro-area financial crisis, but recession is probable.
- Recovery of the US housing market and the severity of the euro-area crisis will do much to determine the outcome of the US presidential contest.
- Chinese growth will slow and Beijing’s strategic position deteriorate.
- Newly elected Islamist parties in the Middle East will find it hard to build coalitions.
About Prospects 2012
Prospects 2012 is a unique guide to the macro risks of the year ahead. Equally relevant to strategists and senior executives working in government or within the private sector, this guide draws on Oxford Analytica’s international network of scholarly experts to analyse macro risk and highlight opportunities in every major region of the world. Authoritative, impartial, and concise, it provides the clearest guidance available to the key issues that will shape the globe, both economically and politically, in 2012.
Prospects 2012 is published at the end of November 2011, and is a component of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief.™
